Iran Review

Ardeshir Zare’ei Qanavati

The developments in Afghanistan during the past few months are pieces of a puzzle which has not been solved eight years after the war with the Taliban. Resurgence of the Taliban, doubts about presidential polls and reinstatement of Hamed Karzai, lack of Afghanistan parliament’s trust in most Karzai’s cabinet and a suicide attack by the Taliban on the presidential palace and some other important ministries on January 18 when the new ministers were supposed to be sworn in, are all parts of an objective and real picture which does not depict a powerful and legitimate government. Those developments, which occurred before the upcoming important conference on Afghanistan in London, which is scheduled for January 28, and questions in Western public opinion about continued presence of their militaries in Afghanistan, which has not led to tangible progress in the country’s situation after eight years, have added to complexity of the situation. Insurgency of fundamentalist Pashtu tribes on both sides of Afghanistan’s border with Pakistan which targets dominant political and social situation and their overt and covert fight against foreign, and mostly non-Muslim forces which has evolved into a crusade for traditional forces in the region, is taking the situation to the brink of a full-fledged calamity.

Unfortunately, correct analyses, reports, polls and news are not offered on Afghanistan and conflicting remarks have both closed the door to logical policymaking by domestic and foreign players on Afghanistan, and have caused more confusion about the situation. On the one side, lack of correct understanding of religious fundamentalism in the form of Taliban insurgency has led to an imaginary demarcation between two religious approaches and has provided grounds for growth of this religious fundamentalism which is rooted in nationalistic tendencies of Pashtu people. On the other hand, the existing political and social arrangement in that country which takes confrontation between democracy and fundamentalism for granted has caused the Afghan society to be dissociated from realities.

Afghanistan has turned into a Gordian knot for the region and the world and apart from terrorists and religious fundamentalists no group, no thought, no political or social class, no ethnic or religious group, no neighboring country or society in the Middle East and no other country which believes in progress, development, democracy, human rights, freedom, justice and rule of law has been immune to complications of this situation. The situation in this country, which cannot be studied separate from the chaotic situation in Pakistan, is like a black hole in space which swallows anything which comes near it and this means nothing but more instability in the region and growth of fundamentalist ideas, at least, in Muslim countries.

Influential players in this arena are grappling with a multifaceted contradiction which cannot be overcome without basic changes in strategy; redefinition of security, sustainable development, national and international interests, and areas of influence; revising geopolitical arrangements and false nation building by colonialist powers; radical fight against production and smuggling of illicit drugs; as well as factual agreements inside and outside Afghanistan.

As for Afghanistan’s neighbors, they define their national interests as if the Cold War is still raging and this has pitched them against each other. Therefore, measures taken by some of them to defuse efforts made by regional and international rivals will further exacerbate violence. Major players that make decisions in Afghanistan and include notorious warlords, corrupt technocrats, Salafi religious leaders, tribal chiefs and drug lords cannot be considered as components of a national alliance, but they are links in a rusty chain which cannot create balance, nor are ready to allow progressive forces in Afghanistan grow and take charge of the political game. The cat and mouse game between Karzai and Afghan parliament either pursues multiple goals fueled by the existing instabilities, or results from their misunderstanding of factional and civil struggles. It may also be directed by power circles. Anyway, the result will be nothing but wasting of efforts which are based on facts.

Basically, all-out attention and dialectical understanding of the chaotic situation in Afghanistan shows that no aspect of this social and political phenomenon or geopolitical problems has necessary principles to stabilize a minimal system of government. Unfortunately, reinstatement of Karzai has not only raised serious questions about legitimacy of his government, but was a repeated confirmation of the failed system of rulership in that country. The plan introduced by his election rival, Abdollah Abdollah, who later withdrew from the elections in protest, for establishment of a parliamentary system which would have paved the way for a minimal federal rule in a country of multiple ethnicities, could have been a new experience and a new chance to get out of an acute crisis. Given the current situation in Afghanistan, it does not seem likely that the new government would be able to take any positive steps to solve problems and the conference in London on January 28, which will be undoubtedly affected by the domestic situation in the country, has not raised much hope.

Disappointment about the result of the London conference originates from the fact that Afghanistan’s neighbors are grappling with domestic problems and global dismay with failure of eight years of incessant work in the country. All these factors have revealed political and social chaos in Afghanistan more than any time before.

Source: Etemaad Newspaper
Translated By: Iran Review