Iran Review

Mohammad Khajouei
Middle East Studies Expert 

Lebanon is the country of political alienation and reconciliation. For some time, differences are highlighted followed by a period of unity. It seems that now it is time for the Lebanese factions to unite.

The standoff over establishment of a new government, which was threatening political stability in Lebanon, was overcome on Monday, November 9, after 136 days of intense consultations and the national unity government announced its establishment at the presidential palace in east Beirut, led by Saad Hariri.

What led to the establishment of the new Lebanese government after a period of 4.5 months?

The answer should be sought in the regional developments related to the position of influential foreign forces in Lebanon and their relationship. For various reasons, Lebanon has been always a scene for rivalry of regional and global powers and every one of the political groups active in that country has been depending on one or more regional or global powers.

Saudi Arabia and Syria are among the influential countries in Lebanon. Reduced tension between the two countries, especially after a visit to Saudi Arabia by the Syrian President, Basher al-Assad, and more importantly, a recent trip to Syria by Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah, were important in solving the Lebanese problem.

In the meantime, the new approach taken by political groups which sought the minimum of their demands was also very important in reaching a final agreement on the composition of the Lebanese cabinet.

The new Lebanese cabinet has been formed on the basis of 15-10-5 formula. It has 30 ministers with March 14 Alliance, which is also swaying a parliamentary majority, having 15 ministers, and March 10 Alliance having 10 ministers. Five ministers are also to be appointed by the president.

This composition can balance the decision-making process among the Lebanese groups. Therefore, although March 14 Alliance has 15 seats in the cabinet, no single group can be in full control of the government given that March 10 Alliance has also 10 ministers there.

In other words, the composition of the new cabinet will bar both the majority and the minority from making unilateral decisions. In fact, both major political factions in Lebanon have chosen Lebanese President Michel Suleiman as final arbiter.

Anyway, establishment of a national unity government in Lebanon has been hailed by all domestic groups in that country and can be a turning point in determining the future course of the country though some majority members of the Lebanese cabinet have complained that posts assigned to them are not proportional to the election results.

A glance at covert and overt relations between political groups in Lebanon would show that the main parties which are discontent with the results of the election in Lebanon are the United States and Israel. They are worried over presence and influence of the Hezbollah in the new cabinet.

Recent remarks by Israeli officials show that they are very concerned about empowerment of the Hezbollah and have also posed military threat to Lebanon.
On the whole, the coming months will be a time when some political groups in Lebanon which are supported by the West will talk about disarmament of the Hezbollah. This has been evident in congratulation messages sent to the Lebanese prime minister by Western leaders. They have frequently urged that international resolutions on Lebanon, which will entail disarmament of the Hezbollah, should be carried out.

Establishment of a new government in Lebanon has put an end to many months of political stalemate in that country although it has also ushered the country in a new phase of complex political developments both in Lebanon and the whole region which make an accurate forecast of the future almost impossible. Will the unity continue to hold or will it give way to disputes one more time?