War With Iran: Political, Military and Economic Consequences

Wednesday, February 20, 2013

Authors: Geoffrey Kemp & John Allen Gay

Paperback: 264 pages
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers (February 16, 2013)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 1442221976
ISBN-13: 978-1442221970

Book Description

War With Iran: Political, Military and Economic Consequences provides readers both a history of Iran’s relationship with the West and an expert’s estimation of what the political, human and financial costs of full-scale war with Iran might be. Authors Geoffrey Kemp and John Allen Gay of the Center for the National Interest utilize their years studying and informing America’s foreign policy in the Middle East to bring to life the possible outcomes of an American military intervention in Iran. Such a decision would not only have catastrophic consequences on the Persian Gulf, but would also endanger the whole world’s delicate economy by heightening instability in a fragile but resource-rich region. Written for anyone with an interest in the future of American foreign policy, War With Iran explores what every player has at stake in the current crisis by analyzing every tension adjacent to it; from America’s staunch support of Israel to Iran’s own dogged pursuit of advanced nuclear capabilities. Controversial, timely and thoroughly researched, this story stands as a preliminary caution against what would be a devastating meltdown of diplomacy, for which—if peace be the goal—there is always time.

Table of Contents

Acknowledgements, Prologue, Introduction, Iran’s Nuclear Program, Chapter 1: Positions of Primary Actors, Iran, Key Opponents to Iran’s Nuclear Program, The United States, Direct Relations, Israel, Global Opponents, Chapter 2: Choosing to Attack, Context for a Strike, Surprise Attack, War, Escalates, Response to Nuclear Provocation, Merits and Risks of a Strike, Expert Voices, Political Voices, Chapter 3: How an Attack Might Work, Targeting, An Israeli Strike, The Central Route: Overflying Iraq, Logistics of an Israeli Strike, An American Strike, Bunker Busting, Iranian Air Defenses, Follow-On Strikes, Impact on Iran’s Nuclear Program, Alternative Means of Destruction, Sabotage, Commando Raid, Chapter 4: Iran’s Retaliation, Lebanese Hezbollah, Israeli Natural Gas Sites, Iraq and Afghanistan, General Terrorism,The Strait of Hormuz, Insurgency in the Gulf, The Missile Threat, Other Iranian Threats to Oil, Chapter 5: Evolving Crisis, Challenging Exit, Mass Retaliation, Nonretaliation, Middle Paths, American Response and Cyclical Violence, Chapter 6: Regional Oil, Gulf Oil: Iran’s Role, Oil Prices and Iran’s Economy, Chapter 7: Oil and War, Recent History, Impact of a Military Strike on Iran, Impact of an Attack on Iranian Oil Facilities, Iran’s Options Against Regional Oil, Action in the Strait of Hormuz, Attacking Arab Oil Facilities, Mobilizing the Saudi Shia Population, Use of Weapons of Mass Destruction, Iraq and Azerbaijan, Chapter 8: Preparing for Oil, disruptions, Mitigation, Rerouting Oil Flows, Excess Capacity, Assurance, Preparation, Expanding Reserves, Pipeline Preparation, Removal of Bottlenecks, Preparing to Reduce Demand, Readying the Refinery Network, “Pre-Assuring” Investors, Chapter 9: Economic Consequences, Wider Economic Factors, Growth Patterns and Oil Markets, Oil Price Increases and Supply Interruption, Oil Price Increases and Economic Recovery, Threats to the Dollar, Alternatives to the Dollar?, However, Impacts in the Middle East, Regional Conflicts, American Trade, The Impact of the Sanctions, Conclusions, Chapter 10: Conclusions: The Challenge of Getting Out, the Costs of Staying Home, Exit Strategy for War with Iran, Internal Political Impacts, The Cost of Inaction, Conclusions, Appendices, Bibliography

About the Authors

*John Allen Gay is assistant editor of The National Interest magazine.

*Geoffrey Kemp is the Director of Regional Strategic Programs at the Center for the National Interest. He has had a long career in academic and research communities, and was Special Assistant to President Reagan and Senior Director for the Near East and South Asia on the National Security Council staff.

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