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The Winners and Losers of Successful Nuclear Talks in Baghdad

Saturday, May 5, 2012

Behzad Khoshandam
PhD Candidate in International Relations

The current speculations, intelligence and developments suggest that the upcoming nuclear negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 group of world powers - the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France plus Germany - in Baghdad on 23 May (3 Khordad 1390 in Persian calendar) will achieve relative success. At all events, relative mutual understanding based upon mutual respect between Iran and the P5+1 group in the Iraqi capital will initiate a big stride in the win-win international interactions of Iran, promote its strategic influence at the global level and finally contribute to the recognition of its role at the regional level.

The relative success of Baghdad nuclear talks will impact upon many actors at the international level. Pertinently, one can make a general distinction between two groups of actors, winners and losers, who will be influenced by the probable success of negotiations in the Iraqi capital. The following actors are likely to be the major losers of the relative success of these talks:

The Hawkish and Warmongering European and American Politicians: This group will be the first victims of potentially successful negotiations. These politicians and policy-makers, who sponsored two catastrophic wars in Afghanistan and Iraq after the 11 September 2001 attacks on the United States, they will be adversely affected by the probable relative success of Iran-P5+1 nuclear negotiations and thus be pushed into a corner, which will in turn cause them to face obstacles in fulfilling their violent and militarist goals.

Certain Arab Actors: Such Arab actors as the [Persian] Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the Arab League (AL) will be among the main losers of this game. As active anti-Persian players in the region, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates will be hurt substantially by the probable success of talks over Iran's nuclear energy programme in Baghdad as they have been the chief agents of anti-Iran coalition at the regional level and in fact pushed the political atmosphere in the Middle East towards securitization and anti-Iranianism.

Radical Groups and Ideologies, Network Players: Such groups and ideologies as Wahhabism, Zionism and Salafism, which theorize and lead the intellectual current of Iranophobia and Shiaphobia in the international system, will also be ne dealt a heavy blow by the potential success of the upcoming Iran-P5+1 talks. In addition, this probable success will seriously undermine the regional goals of network players like Al-Qaeda.

Israel and the AIPAC Lobby Group: Undoubtedly, Israel and the American Israeli Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) are among the definite loser of positive developments that may take place with regards to Iran's nuclear issue in Baghdad. If we consider the fact that over the past months Israel and the AIPAC lobby group have made remarkable attempts to prepare the ground for military action against Iran, then we will work out the great loss they will suffer in case the imminent Iran-P5+1 nuclear talks prove successful.

Industrial-Military Complexes and Merchants of Death: The agents of these two groups in the West, who have undertaken great direct and indirect efforts during recent years to pressurize anti-Iran politicians in the Western quarters into confronting the Islamic Republic more toughly, will undoubtedly suffer a fundamental blow in the wake of the relative success of Baghdad nuclear negotiations and be forced to pursue their international objectives in another front.

Turkey: In the developments over the recent years, Turkey has endeavoured to assume a leadership role in the Middle East region in line with the Western alliance. The potential expansion of Iran’s influence in the region following success in its talks with the P5+1 group will definitely confront Turkey with grave challenges in its endeavours to realize a leadership role in the region.

The following actors, however, will be the principal winners in case the Baghdad nuclear talks end in relative success:

The Iranian and American People, Governments and Diplomacy Apparatuses: The greatest winners of a relative success in the upcoming negotiations on Iran’s nuclear energy programme will certainly be the Iranian and American nations. The people, governments and diplomacy apparatuses of the Islamic Republic and the United States have borne tremendous costs directly and indirectly over the strategic emergence of Iran in the international arena. Therefore, the relative success of this round of negotiations will impact these actors more than others.

The Well-Wishers and Optimists in Iran’s Relations with the United States and the European Union: Over the past several years and at the same time as the economic crisis in the West, this group has mounted enormous sustained efforts to contain and prevent certain international actors from taking grim security action against Iran. In the case of the triumph of Baghdad nuclear talks, this group will be fundamentally revived and revitalized at the international level.

Actors Sympathetic to the Resistance Discourse in the Middle East: Syria, Palestinian and Lebanese resistance groups as well as some other currents supporting the resistance discourse in the Middle East will obtain great advantages from the probable success of nuclear talks in Baghdad. Iran’s success in these negotiations will generate a new wave of activities in the Middle East, boosting the regional resistance movement.

The Global Civil Society and International Public Sphere: The global civil society’s pacifist objectives have, amid international developments over the past two decades, been sacrificed for the materialistic and hawkish desires of those politicians who advocate the discourse of militarism. Beyond any doubt, the relative success of nuclear negotiations between Iran and P5+1 group of world powers will inject a new life into the global civil society and international public sphere.

International Law and Organizations: International law has been victimized by international political objectives particularly during the past ten years, which has in turn raised deep suspicions in the international society about the activities of such important international organizations as the United Nations, the International Atomic Energy Agency, North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union. The potential success of this round of nuclear talks on the basis of political and diplomatic solutions will rebuild and restore international confidence in international law and organizations as the most important moderators of international relations beyond the measures of state actors.

The Palestinian, Iraqi and Afghan Nations: The people of these three countries have been overlooked by the international society in the recent years mostly due to the heightened security atmosphere prevailing in the international arena. The establishment of mutual trust between Iran and the international system during the upcoming negotiations will undoubtedly offer a fresh opportunity for revising the international attitude towards these countries as it will reinforce the pattern of arriving at political solutions through international diplomatic negotiations.

It should be finally noted that the international community is looking forward to the results of nuclear talks between Iran and the P5+1 group with great sensitivity. The success or failure of 23 May talks in Baghdad is not only of great significance for its losers and winners, but it will also play a decisive role in shaping the future balance of changing power in the Middle East as well as in determining the weight and range of Iran’s and other actors’ influence in regional equations.

Key Words: Nuclear Talks, Iran and the P5+1, Winners and Losers, Regional Equations, Iraq, Balance of Changing Power, Khoshandam

More By Behzad Khoshandam:

*Futurology of Iran's Strategic Influence and Baghdad Negotiations: http://iranreview.org/content/Documents/Futurology_of_Iran_s_Strategic_Influence_and_Baghdad_Negotiations_3.htm

*The Arab Spring and the Winter of Iran-EU Relations: http://www.iranreview.org/content/Documents/The_Arab_Spring_and_the_Winter_of_Iran_EU_Relations_2.htm

*Iran and International Organizations after Arab Spring: http://www.iranreview.org/content/Documents/Iran_and_International_Organizations_after_Arab_Spring.htm

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