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The New Regional Order and Far-Fetched Small Alliances

Wednesday, December 25, 2013

Dr. Hossein Gharibi, Political Researcher

The strategic region of the Middle East has undergone dramatic evolution through the last years. Undoubtedly, the current phase of the international system, taking shape and being evolved during the transit, can be considered a historicizing and determining factor for the region and even for the world, which has been interpreted, by the Iran´s Supreme Leader, as the “historic defile” in this period of transition.

The fundamental evolution in the Middle East has crossed out all the western strategies, namely, Nixson´s bipolar policy, Clinton´s “dual containment” policy, and the balance of powers. The schemes of Power, been planned by the western Powers and hoped to maintain their presence in the region constantly, failed, contrary to their expectations. The Middle East is experiencing a new scheme of power; but this time with this difference that the countries in the region and also the transregional Great Powers, who are seeking a new model, have focused their attention on the local powers and the regional actors´ potential components.

Under the vast and increasingly accelerated evolution in the world, particularly in the Middle East, the region is encountering and undergoing a new balance of power. This new order is a result of the effective factors such as the following instances:

- The Nations’ rebellions in the North Africa.

- The withdrawal of American forces from Iraq and, in the near future, from Afghanistan, with the aim of transferring the center of attention from the Middle East and the Persian Gulf to East Asia and the Far East (based on the announcement of the US revised new defense strategy for the 21st century).

- The early political waning of the Brotherhoods in the Egypt and the isolation of Turkey and Qatar in the region.

- The failure of the Anti-Resistance Front, especially, Saudi Arabia, in the overthrowing the government of the president Bashar al-Assad and exacerbating the Saudi Arabia´s internal split due to the nation´s serious rebellion in their neighboring countries; i.e., Yemen, Bahrain, and Jordan.

- By lifting a corner of the veil on the new order, what has been revealed so far is that Zionist regime (Israel) is not the axis of power in security arrangement.

Beside all the above-mentioned factors, emerging some signs of probability in sorting out Iran´s nuclear problem with the West and also lack of any preconditioning from the West in order to resolve the crisis in Syria (agreeing with the period of transition with the presence of Bashar al-Assad) have had a considerable impact on rearranging position of the Regional Powers. Being conscious of their isolation and suspension from the US, the countries in the region, especially the Arab States of the Persian Gulf, seek to adapt their situations to the evolutions and strive to find a substitution model for the previous regional security regime and, consequently, redefine their role and position in the Middle East.

Establishing small alliances and regional recruit are examples of the regional actors´ efforts. On the one hand, the triangle of Turkey, Qatar, and Egypt´s Muslim Brotherhood, and on the other hand, the Saudi Arabia´s historic coalition with Zionist regime (Israel), and also setting up a Persian Gulf States community, proposed by the Saudi Arabia, manifest the new strategies of the countries for defining their role and position in the new regional system.

Now, how much this strategy complies with the region´s local realities is a case of contemplation. However, it can be said whatever occurs in the region will have impact on the destiny of the other parts of the world.  Of course, there appear signs of probability that the Persian Gulf States are seeking their own and the region´s stability and security, with the collaboration of Iran, their strong neighboring country.

Key Words: New Regional Order, Middle East, Transregional Great Powers, Anti-Resistance Front, Persian Gulf, Gharibi

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