Players in Iran Nuclear Case

Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh

The latest UN Security Council resolution against Iran before aiming at Iran and its problems aimed to do away with the differences among 5+1. In fact, the 5+1 Group by adopting the resolution which provided for the minimums tried to overlook the challenges they were facing among themselves. For the same reason, it is necessary to review the condition of the main players of this group vis-à-vis Iran’s nuclear case.

The first player is the United States. The Americans are currently wrestling with the difficulties of signing a security agreement with Iraq known as the Status of Force Agreement (SOFA). On the other hand, the Bush administration on the threshold of new presidential elections is trying to sum up its policies in other parts of the world. That is why it was content with the least achievement (as far as the anti-Iran resolution was concerned) to avoid another defeat on the eve of its goodbye to the White House. The minimum the Bush administration accomplished here was to maintain the sequence of anti-Iran resolutions so that it could hand over Iran’s nuclear dossier as a country “threatening international peace and security” to the next US government.  

The second player is Russia. The Russians have two priorities in their foreign policy. First is strategic priority. This priority finds its meaning in Europe, in Chechnya, and in Abkhazia and Ossetia. Secondly, the Russians would use the veto right in UN Security Council games and in strategic issues but never in tactical issues. The Iranian nuclear issue for Moscow is a tactical priority. Under the present condition, it is unlikely for Russia to use its veto right on Iran’s nuclear issue. Therefore, they refused to stand against the resolution in order not to be forced to do anything. The Russians only opposed the content of the resolution because they did not want a new front to open for them against US at the peak of the Ossetia and Georgia crisis.

It seems that the Russian outlook towards Iran is one of `embankment.’ Russia has accepted the final cold war as an unavoidable reality and wants countries like Iran to play the role of a wall for the Russians so that they would not be forced to launch a cold war rivalry with the Americans sooner than the time they have predicted.

Iran’s nuclear issue, in addition to the US and Russia, has another player too, namely the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). IAEA is unable to stand up to US politicization any more and has eventually entered a political climate. IAEA Chief Mohamed ElBaradei by raising the issue of alleged studies has practically opened a political chapter in Iran’s nuclear case. If this trend continues Iran’s nuclear dossier would not be terminated in a near future. We must pay attention to these delicate points.

If the world countries have recognized our nuclear rights to some extent it is because of our own potentials in the nuclear issue not confidence in other countries. In politics, trust is out of the question. It is rather the question of profit and loss and political games.  

While all the countries are seeking their own interests Iran too should continue its political game and not quit the negotiations on the condition that it will act powerfully in the talks.


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