Obstacles and Challenges Facing US vis-à-vis Iran

Tuesday, July 29, 2008

There are numerous reasons and evidences which reveal Washington’s incapability in fanning the flames of war against Iran. These evidences prove that what the media describe as a new American military buildup is only an exaggeration and a mere psychological war.

In view of the serious challenges the United States is facing inside the country as well as its obstacles and problems in the Middle East plus its defeats and failures in Iraq and Afghanistan, it is practically unable to launch any overseas operations in the region.

Some of these challenges and obstacles are cited as follows:

1.    US Congress and Senate: With less than five months left to the US presidential elections and in view of the victory of the Democrats contender over the Republicans, as well as the open opposition voiced by certain Senate members like Nancy Pelosi… the Bush Administration is faced with serious problems in launching any military operations.

2.    Challenge of Consensus on Iran: There are different outlooks in the American political community regarding the ways and means of dealing with Iran. There are those such as Richard Haass, Richard Swan, Stefan Hadley… who insist on confrontation with Iran. But there are others like Brzezinski, William Adam and Philip Gordon who believe that a confrontation with Iran would be to invite danger.

3.    Challenge of Public Opinion: The popularity of George Bush in the last year of his presidency has dramatically dropped compared to last year. In addition to this falling popularity, Bush has still not forgotten his remarks made early in 2007 that whenever there is talk of a confrontation with Iran, they faced a big obstacle called the public opinion. This situation has further aggravated now. According to opinion polls, the majority of the American people are opposed to US policies in the Middle East, including in Iran and Iraq.

4.    Challenge of Military Strength: The prolongation of the Iraqi war and the US failure to achieve its security goals promoted an outlook in the American society that military tools were unable to fulfill political goals in the Middle East region. Richard Haass clearly states that the United States has made two big blunders in the Middle East: The first mistake was unwarranted reliance on its military strength; and the second mistake was its emphasis on democratization to do away with threats. Haass concludes that Washington should abandon these policies and resort to diplomacy.

5.    Challenge of Costs: The occupation of Iraq has imposed heavy costs on the United States. Some American experts estimate the costs of the war at 1 trillion dollars and some others even put it at 2 trillion dollars. This has sparked widespread protests against Bush. The question is how stupid Bush could be to launch another military operation despite all these protests. Meanwhile, as stressed by the IRI Supreme Leader the time has gone for some countries to launch “hit and run” operations. In other words, any kind of military operation would mean getting stuck in the battlefield.

In the international arena too, the White House officials would face numerous challenges, including the challenge of forging an alliance against Iran; the challenge of world public opinion; and the challenge of legitimacy of war.

Remembering the unfavorable conditions in the region as well as the repeated defeats of the US policies in the Middle East, one would accept the fact that the US is not in a position to take the risk of striking Iran militarily.

Even if the White House leaders turned a blind eye to all these challenges, they would be faced with a bigger obstacle, namely the “power of Iran”. The 142-page report released by Baker and Hamilton clearly states that Iran is strongly holding on and is not open to fundamental changes at all. Also Brzezinski noted in a recent article in Washington Post that the Iranians always feel they are in a situation of threat. Therefore, he said, the US measures against them would be fruitless and only result in security dangers for America.

Meanwhile, some American experts mention the military-defense status of Tehran and admit that Iran is a very powerful state in the region. The US officials can certainly not overlook the warning by the Heritage Foundation that Iran’s military power is much higher than the time of war with Iraq (1980-88). Iran displayed part of its military capability during the recent “Great Prophet” war games.

After remarks made by IRGC commander and chief of the joint staff command of the armed forces, Western military experts announced that Iran is capable of making the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz insecure. Therefore, they noted, in case of any action against Iran, the global economy, particularly oil the price of which is constantly rising, would be paralyzed.

To sum it up, it can be said that the news reports by the Western media that the US and the Zionist regime are preparing to attack Iran militarily, are published with specific aims the most important of which is to wage a psychological war to intimidate IRI on the threshold of the agreements reached to continue the nuclear talks.

In fact, these measures have been designed within the framework of the “verge of collapse”. According to this strategy, you would take actions against the enemy so that he would feel it is on the verge of war. But the truth is that it is Iran which has practically pushed the US to the verge of collapse the signs of which can be evidently seen in the Zionist regime’s repeated defeats at the hands of the Lebanese Hizbollah and Palestinian militants, as well as the defeat of the US schemes in Iraq such as the “security accord”, etc.


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