Print        

Livni and a Challenge Called Security

Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Seyed Abdolmajid Zavari

The area of what is called Israel today is 27000 square kilometers which includes the entire territories occupied in 1948 and 1967 as well as the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Of this area some 20000 sq km was occupied in 1948 and from international and UN point of view it is what is meant to be Israel.

Security has been the most important challenge Israel has been faced with since then. In fact, all the structures of the Israeli regime, from the way it was shaped to population and religious fabrics, area and other factors have caused it to be known as an entity separate from the region and face a nightmare called security. Although the various Israeli governments, from the outset till now, have been seeking numerous solutions to resolve this challenge, but all of them were confident that the best and most stable way to attain security is reconciliation with the Arabs and Palestinians. This can be clearly concluded from the remarks of Golda Meir, the former hardline prime minister of Israel. Some 34 years ago, Meir had said “there is no other way than conciliation whether it is possible or not.” To have a better understanding of the status of the new Israeli Prime Minister Tzipi Livni and the Israeli government, we will take a cursory look at the situation of this regime.

The area of what is called Israel today is 27000 square kilometers which includes the entire territories occupied in 1948 and 1967 as well as the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Of this area some 20000 sq km was occupied in 1948 and from international and UN point of view it is what is meant to be Israel.

In other words, all the countries that have recognized this regime have recognized this region. Another 7000 sq km includes the West Bank and Gaza Strip which were occupied in 1967 and Israel has continued its domination over them despite international pressures to quit there.

According to Israeli statistics center, its population is 6.3 million, including 5m Jews and 1.3m Arabs who have accepted Israeli citizenship and live mostly north of Israel. The population of Gaza Strip and West Bank are 1.3m and 2.7m respectively which together with the Arabs settled in the regions occupied in 1948 amount to 5.3m. There are also 5m homeless Palestinians who live in Jordan, Syria and Lebanon.

Meanwhile, the total Jewish population dispersed over 20000 sq km of Israel is about 5m. Under these conditions, if a free election is held in Israel, the Arabs would definitely win over the Jews and the Palestinians would take over sovereignty or at least equally share it. This is a major challenge the Israeli government is faced with and for the same reason it would never formally annex these regions because in that case and based on democratic principle, Tel Aviv should grant them citizenship rights and facilities and provide for their participation in the establishment.

Another issue relates to Israel itself and its population fabric and culture. Considering that the Jewish immigrants have been mostly moved from Western countries to this region, their population growth is low in accordance with the Western culture. But based on the culture of the region the population growth of Arabs is very high. According to figures issued by Israeli sources, the population growth rate in Israel is 1.3 and among Arabs more than 2.7. Yafa research center in Israel has announced that continuation of this trend till 2020 would face Israel with serious challenges.

For the same reason, Tel Aviv has adopted a double-pronged strategy: Encouraging Jews to migrate to Israel and expelling Palestinians on various excuses. Another challenge is that it would be impossible to turn over Gaza Strip and West Bank to the Palestinians. Because with regard to the geographical condition of the region and location of West Bank on the heights on the one hand and close proximity of the West Bank to such important cities as Tel Aviv and Ashlon, which is less than 18 km on the other, the security of these cities would be practically very fragile.

The importance of this issue will be known when we find out that the occupied territories can be easily attacked from the West Bank by Katyusha rocket launchers. According to Israelis, the turnover of these regions to the Palestinians would be “suicide.” In other words, the Israeli government is faced with challenges that threaten its entity under any condition. Therefore, this regime should take quick action to strengthen its internal and regional positions. One of the most important preoccupations of Livni would be to follow up the issue of peace with the Palestinian groups. A study of her stances in this regard would make it possible to offer a more precise evaluation of her role vis-à-vis peace. Ms. Livni’s most important task will be to accomplish the goals of the Road Map. Of course, in addition to the question of Palestine, she will have to cope with other important issues such as Iran’s nuclear issue, the 33-day war with the Hizbollah and normalization of relations with the countries of the region

Source: http://www.irandiplomacy.ir/

طراحی و توسعه آگاه‌سیستم