A Glance at Consequences of Mumbai Bombing

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Pir Mohammad Mollazehi

In a general sum-up of the possible repercussions of the Mumbai bombing it can be said that the incident could have very grave but tolerable consequences for India. The event can leave a temporary impact on the growing economy of India and reduce the desire of foreign investors to make profitable investment in India. One other aim of the engineers of the Mumbai operations could be a party power shifting, namely to pave the way for the defeat of the Congress Party in the future elections and return to power of the hardline BJP. If this happens India would become a strategic ally of Israel and the United States and place Pakistan in a difficult position. From this angle, the terrorist operations in Mumbai would be completely to the detriment of Pakistan.

It is also likely that the differences between ISI and the PPP government would lead to dismissal of the Pakistan People Party from power and this is something not overlooked by Nawaz Sharif’s Muslim League Party. The defeat of the PPP would be in the interest of the Muslim League of Nawaz Sharif.

The following list will give us an idea about possible consequences of the Mumbai terrorist operations:

A.    India

1.    Creating problems for India in acquiring West’s advanced technology and temporarily reducing its economic growth rate;

2.    Possible shifting of party power in upcoming elections in India;

3.     Resignation of some responsible officials in the central government and local government;

4.    Possibility of creation of a new security organization with extensive authorities;

5.    Escalation of the clashes in Indian-held Kashmir;

6.    Continuation and escalation of terrorist operations and more bombings;

7.     Intensification of ethnic differences between Hindus and Muslims in India;

8.    Possible dispatch of Indian military to Afghanistan;

9.    Formation and strengthening of strategic alliance between India and the US and between India and Israel; and

10.    Strengthening of Hinduism and ethnic extremist groups.

B. Pakistan

1.    Rise in the power challenge between ISI and the PPP government;

2.    Escalation of challenge between the party government and extremist Islamic current;

3.    Increase in possibility of US military intervention in tribal regions;

4.    Growing threat of Pakistan’s disintegration;

5.    Possibility of failure of the PPP government and coming to power of the Muslim League Party (Nawaz Sharif);

6.    Danger of India’s retaliation in Pakistan’s vulnerable regions;

7.    Rising possibility of outbreak of war between India and Pakistan;

8.     Growing pressures on Pakistan to increase the fight against terrorism and adopt a united policy; and

9.    Increasing ambiguities about the future of Pakistan.

In any event, the terrorist operations in Mumbai, due to its sophistication, the time picked for the operations and incentive of its agents, have left an important impact on relations between New Delhi and Islamabad. However, despite the great losses for India its consequences can be checked. But its perils for Pakistan would be more serious because it could pave the way for a US military intervention in tribal areas. If the US enters the Pakistani territory by land the winner would be Afghanistan and it is unlikely for Islamabad government to maintain its national unity and territorial integrity in the present form.    

Moreover, a demand by India for Pakistan to hand over 20 suspected terrorists who live in Pakistan would face the government in Islamabad with serious challenges because these individuals belong to Kashmiri Jihad groups who enjoy the support of Islamists and the Pakistani army. In other words, even if the government wishes to cooperate it would be unable in practice as this would greatly undermine the relations between the government and Islamic parties.

On the contrary, India follows a clear goal by making this demand. New Delhi wants to prove that Islamabad is not serious in its fight against terrorism. It is even likely for India to adopt the same policy the US has taken towards tribal regions, namely to overlook Pakistan’s national sovereignty through missile attacks. If India attacks the suspected training centers which are located mainly at military garrisons it would escalate the tension and the possibility of an unwanted full-fledged war would exist.

طراحی و توسعه آگاه‌سیستم